An “abrupt as well as disorderly” Brexit could have a severe short-term impact on the UK economy as well as public finances, the country’s fiscal watchdog has warned.
If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, the item could lead to shortages as well as hoarding of some imported products, said the Office for Budget Responsibility.
The OBR said the lack of precedents for Brexit made the effect hard to predict.
however the item noted that will 1974’s Three-Day Week prompted by miners’ industrial action caused a 3% fall in quarterly output.
The OBR said weaker economic activity as well as higher prices could result coming from a no-deal Brexit.
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The OBR said if there was no agreement on standards everything could have to be resubmitted for approval: “In a scenario where the UK as well as EU are unable to agree to the continued mutual recognition (‘grandfathering’) of existing product standards as well as professional qualifications, all existing goods may need to be re-approved before sale as well as services trade could be severely restricted by the loss of market access.”
the item said This specific could lead to bottlenecks of goods while they wait for brand new approvals. the item also warned about the risk of grounding of British aircraft not being able to fly, should no agreement be made.
the item said any stockpiling This specific prompted could only worsen the situation: “Should these bottlenecks turn out to be significant, the item might prompt households as well as businesses to attempt to stockpile goods in advance, further aggravating the shortages.”
The OBR said the item was “next to impossible to calibrate with any confidence the potential impact of This specific sort of scenario in advance.
“However, while not a direct parallel, the item is usually worth noting that will the ‘Three-Day Week’, introduced in early 1974 in response to energy shortages as well as increased militancy on the part of the miners, was associated using a fall in output of a little under 3% that will quarter.”